The main material was presented as a 60-item questionnaire. 4 items were deleted from the analysis due to their specific character referring to particular kind of stocks, instead of the whole market. The cover page of the questionnaire stated that the survey was designed to better understand the opinions of experts in order to prepare a new questionnaire examining the financial knowledge of Poles.
This remark allowed the participants to feel more like experts whose opinion is needed for some further research rather then the persons examined. Respondents were assured of confidentiality. Demographic information was collected on the participants’ age, educational level, sex, and employment status. All 40 participants were financial analysts or dealers employed by banks and Polish capital market institutions.
The questionnaire was carried out in Warsaw in June 1999 during one of financial analysts meetings. Each participant was responding the questionnaire without consulting it with others. The procedure took 30-45 minutes. The items of the questionnaire were derived from commentaries in Polish economic newspapers, especially the financial newspaper: Parkiet. The authors of those commentaries had used them as explanations of a past stock prices drop or rise as well as for predictions of near future market movements, so all items listed in the questionnaire represented real events.
Three kinds of items were included: economic, political and from technical analysis. The participants of the questionnaire were asked to mark a score –3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2 or +3 to each item, depending on how they estimated the impact of the item for the future (within a few weeks) behavior of stock prices (WIG index). The examined analysts were asked on what market movement they would expect if certain event (or a technical analysis signal) occurred.
The higher the score the stronger positive impact of the item on a stock prices rise. Thus –3 meant that the item was expected to evoke a strong stock prices drop, while +3: a strong rise. 0 meant, that the item was regarded by the participant as a neutral measure. WIG is the main Polish stock exchange index; a total-return index encompassing all shares listed on the main market, calculated since 1991.
Statistical analysis of the questionnaire was done with the use of the StatSoft computer program Statistica. Additionnaly each respondent received a 10 – item questionnaire concerning general signals used in technical analysis. The participants were asked how they perceive each of 10 technical signals in relation to its predictive power. The possible answers were: predictive value, no predictive value, no opinion.
Prof. Piotr Zielonka
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Summary: Index